Is Moore’s law in Jeopardy?

Last week there was a press release out of Silicon Valley discussing the future of Moore’s Law. It stated that we are reaching the practical limits and the law will be broken by 2020. I disagree with this, but first let’s discuss the law itself.

You may remember several years ago I wrote a newsletter regarding Moore’s Law. In the simplest of terms the law states that computers will double in speed and capacity about every 2 years…forever. The last word of that statement, forever, is the conundrum. When you talk about exponential growth the future cannot be seen because it is impossible and impractical. If you simply think in your head 1+1=2, 2+2=4, 4+4=8, and carry that on as far as you can you will see how absurd the numbers get very quickly. We are at a point now where doubling computer performance in 24 months is already getting tough and somewhat unrealistic. However, to date it has been accomplished and although Moore’s law is now 40 years old we are still in the infancy stage of technology.

When you consider the technological advances we have made over the past 40 years, from vacuum tubes to a billion transistors on a microscopically thin piece of silicon, it is obvious that our learning grows at an exponential rate too. One supports the other. We learn something new and then it changes the way we do things. That will never end.

The year 2020 is still over 12 years away. 12 years ago we couldn’t see the discoveries that have been made recently. Many of those discoveries have shaped our industry into what it is today. How can anyone say the law is in jeopardy if they don’t have a working crystal ball or a clairvoyant to guide them? I say hogwash!

Part of the reason for the press release is the realization that we cannot shrink transistors any smaller than they are. We are already reaching the atomic level and we are currently unable to even “see” anything smaller. If you follow physics then you know that there is a smaller scale, one that is still theory because we haven’t been able to reach it yet. That level of smallness is called the Planck length or Planck constant and it is as microscopic to an atom as the atom is to us. Max Planck is one of the founders of quantum physics and this theory or measurement is used to measure things like the energy emitted from a photon, among other things. Theories become reality as soon as technology becomes available to prove them. It is only a matter of time. A lot can happen in 12 years.

Another reason for the press release is the limitations of silicon. We all experience this on a regular basis. I get calls every day regarding heat related system failures. We can’t keep cooling silicon the same way. Heatsinks and fans will not do the trick anymore. Even if we can find a more efficient cooling solution, silicon is not going to stand up to the intense heat we are creating with a billion transistors crammed into it. Eventually it will melt. What this press release failed to mention is the alternative replacement mediums on the horizon for silicon. You may remember, again, several years ago I talked about synthetic diamonds becoming the next platform for CPU’s. This is still a viable alternative and there is other media being considered all the time. Once again, it is only a matter or time. A lot can happen in 12 years.

So, is Moore’s Law in Joepardy? Gordon Moore himself recently stated that the exponential growth alone would kill the law due to its absurdity. From that standpoint, I agree. Eventually the law will fall. However, I think 2020 is premature. No one will know when the law will die until it does. In the meantime watch closely. That exponential growth in technology could zip past you and you won’t even know it. If you would like to read the press release, click here.

Happy Holidays,

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